MSFT
Why is MSFT sucking so badly? Well the Yahoo deal sucks so far. I suspect that the various Yahoo execs don’t get much with the present offer. Somebody mentioned 40 as a better price. That sounds to me like the highest that MS will go. I thought they might have to sweeten the pot at to get things moving and I should have bailed the day after I took the hit for the first offer. Well I think that there are three directions that this can go with the first two being the most likely. The first is that they sweeten the pot. This will result in MSFT dropping another buck or so but I suspect that if they make an offer that it will be an offer that is negotiated and thus will be accepted. After it is accepted the stock price will twitch about for a moment and then trend up as people realize the possibilities. The second possibility is that they will drop their takeover and their stock will recover a buck or so. Lastly, and least likely, is that they will make an offer and it will be rejected. This will hurt their stock and any recovery will be an uptrend but a slow one as people will lose some confidence in MSFT.
So what do I do? I think that MSFT is presently undervalued and will go up before the end of the month unless a higher offer holds it down. This will still end up with some recovery before the end of March. Thus I think up is what will happen.
What I should have done; The Yahoo deal wasn’t going to happen with the last offer. I sort of saw this so I should have dumped after taking the initial hit. Then I should have waited until the initial deal failed and the stock started hitting lows then bought. Thus buying around now would have been good.