I have finally figured out who apple is. They are BMW. That is everybody either wants a BMW or has a BMW or is in denial that they want a BMW. By BMW generically mean the higher end Germanic cars such as Audi, Porsche. Basically Apple’s cost more are considered cool and tend to have extra features and be of a generally higher quality. Whereas Dell and HP are like GM and Ford with the sony Vaio series perfectly matching the Japanese car manufactures. Using this interpretation it allows me to predict the future of Apple. Like BMW apple will never take over a majority of the car market but they will hold on to the high end high profit margin of the business. The HPs and Dells will continue to grab the bulk of the market with their basic econ boxes with the occasional profit grab using premium brands like alienware in the same way that American car manufactures use cars like their Corvettes and Vipers to grab a little extra profit from the fools who buy them.
So just like cars people will look at how much they can afford and otherwise justify spending on a computer and most will end up buying a PC for their surfing and emailing. But a few who’s time is worth too much for the hassles of Vista or just have the money to buy a better machine or just want to look cool will buy an Apple.
So sooner than later Apple will have all these consumers and their growth will stop. Apple’s present growth is due to their machines being more useful and Vista dropping the ball for the PC market. The only way for this to not play out in this fashion would be if Apple were to try and enter the lower end market. This would not work as they would damage the prestige of their brand and probably lose as many customers as they would gain. As how many doctors would buy BMWs if a nearly identical looking BMW model was available at say $15,000?
So in summary the present growth of Apple will continue for a little while but not for much longer. Microsoft will eliminate the worst of Vista and machines will continue to increase in power and compensate for Vista’s sluggishness. I will predict that Apple will make one last thrust into the high end corporate market in the same way that the bosses drive BMWs while the worker trolls drive fords then the growth will end. If I were researching this I would count the number of Apples in the executive boarding gates and when it levels out then sell of any Apple(AAPL) shares as they will be then overpriced based on the incorrect assumption of continued market share growth.