Archive for June, 2008

Dumping SUN (JAVA)

Monday, June 30th, 2008

I am dumping Sun from my portfolio not only because it is a total dog but also because of what they are doing with MySQL. MySQL is a product that was poised to take on Oracle. It used the open source model and it was going gangbusters until Sun bought it. Sun made the usual takeover promises that they would not change a thing but now they are moving toward closing the parts of the source code. For you less technically minded this is breaking what makes products like MySQL great. This is missing the whole point of the product. This shows that Sun is still thinking like a giant company that it isn’t anymore. I had thought that they were going to be new and nimble but I now suspect that they are going to continue with their long tail slide into the dustbin of history.

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As an addition based on a comment that I received. MySQL is not going completely closed source that is the problem, it is that tiny pieces of it are. This is a tiny change. But it is a change in the wrong direction. MySQL is a great database with huge support from the Linux world along with others. But in the world of Open Source people can be fanatical about the source code being open. The moment you close even one part of the code the open source people will scream and run for other solutions. And there are other free open source databases lurking in the shadows ready to take MySQL’s place.

The key to the success of MySQL is not just that it works well but that it the linux community has adopted it wholesale. It is distributed along with most of the major distributions of linux and linux is what most of the real net is driven by. But many of the Linux distributions are black and white about opens source. If the source isn’t open then they won’t distribute it. This won’t happen overnight and it won’t even happen soon. But with the slightest hint of closed source and many in the linux world will start looking for alternatives to MySQL where they normally would not be looking at all. This would result in MySQL fading away and SUN having squandered 1 billion dollars.

Companies that buy successful things for 1 billion dollars and then change that which makes them successful by making them “better” are companies that get tossed off my portfolio.

This would be like buying a Chrysler right after they invented the minivan and removing the 3rd row of seating and putting in more trunk space. You could validly argue that people had been demanding more trunk space and this was just delivering to a proven market. Your competitors would love it and promptly make minivans that do have 3 rows of seating and kick your ass.

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Switching from PC to Apple; a programmer’s perspective

Tuesday, June 17th, 2008

Over the past week I have finished making the switch from PC to Apple. I think that I have an interesting perspective because over the last 20 years I have nearly elusively used microsoft for my desktop operating system and for many of those years I used Microsoft as my server system.

For the most part the only other operating system that I have extensively used would be the Linux operating system but not as my desktop. My programming has usually been a combination of windows application programming mixed with server side programming. Microsoft served me well providing me with many tools that were the best available and during a period from about 1997 – 2003 were nearly all that I used for the server and desktop. Off and on from 96-01 I also used the Java programming language. But then I discovered the .net environment and from that moment on I was hooked. Many of the hard won coding victories that I had added to my library were mostly to be found in the world of .net with more being added all the time. My programming went quickly and smoothly in Microsoft’s .net programming environment. But then as time went by I started to find that Microsoft was not trying to help me program but was telling me how to program. Also I found myself using fewer and fewer microsoft tools and more and more opensource. Now I am not an opensource evangelist. The tools were just better. MySQL replaced Microsoft’s SQL server. Next PHP replaced .net along with eclipse replacing visual studio. Then linux replaced Microsoft’s server and now all I was basically left with was XP as my desktop.

Next I noticed geeks all around me using Macs. I noticed that the various hackers were also using Macs. Then I found out that the Mac OS is based upon an OS called BSD. BSD is for hard core hackers. But here was BSD hidden underneath the glossy Mac OS. So then I discover that the Mac OS is really a hard core server waiting for me to play with it. So I check to see if all my favorite apps are available for the mac which they were and then I made my move. I get the mac all up and running dual monitors and all. No problems. It sees my usb devices the apps all install and within hours I am up and running. Then for the next few days productivity drops while I get used to the new keys and where everything is hidden. The BSD lurking underneath is completely happy with my Linux / Solaris commands and I even remember my vi commands.

I would say that productivity is way up with the exception of some key slips where I use the windows key combos. The Mac aluminum keyboard is very nice. I am used to an ergonomic keyboard so my only wish is that they made an aluminum ergonomic keyboard. But all those little things are just better. Printing is better. Startup is quicker. The apps start is less time. Things are snappier. The upgrades are better. And the basic apps like iPhoto are kick ass simple. I have been wrestling with digital photos since the late 90s and nothing touches the ease of iPhoto.

I do have a few complaints about the Mac. Not everything is easier. Dragging applications to the applications folder to install them is just not intuitive. I get it but will a 60 year old first time user of computers get that? Memory. I have my computer loaded with 4 Gigs of RAM and I would not be able to function with less. Ram is cheap if you buy it separately from Apple but would most people be able to install it?  Applications. I am able to get by with the few missing apps that I need by using Darwine and VMWare Fusion but these are not for basic users. A better way to run windows apps is needed. I am fine but I would hate to have to show a basic user how to do all that.

So in summary. I am still producing applications for windows using VMWare fusion and Visual studio but now I port my C++ applications over to mac. My web application programming has improved as I am now working in an environment that more closely resembles the servers that the web applications will end up on.

So joyfully I have sidestepped the disaster known as Vista. But where will this lead. Some people are predicting that Apple will end up with huge percentages of the PC market share. Others predict that Microsoft will pump out a new OS and regain and losses they have to Apple. I suspect that the truth is that Apple will gain some good market share (around 15 to an absolute max of 20%) and then stop. They will stop both because Apple’s are just so damn expensive and also because hardware will get better so new machines will be able to drag the deadweight that is vista around a bit better. Linux is not a player in the desktop world and probably should stick to servers. The primary breakthrough that I see in the Apple market share will be IT people who make the swtich and then drag a small share of their company along. But the accountants will generally fight Apple corporate penetration as they would eat money.

So the real mac commercial should not show the dope smoking artist vs the bloated sack of crap but two businessmen. One with a pc and one with a mac. The Mac guy should then do things that are useful to the business world and do them faster. The Mac guy can then get into his Porsche and the PC guy can get into his Ford.

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iPhone vs RIM

Tuesday, June 10th, 2008

I think this comes down to what people use their device for. For typing text primarily for emails the various blackberry RIM devices win hands down.  Most people that I know who have a RIM device only use it for the two features of email and as a very oddly shaped phone; nothing else. I have only met one person who used the web feature which I suspect is the only other feature that a few people use on their blackberrys.

But the iPhone seems to be missing the keyboard which is simply the best way to enter text so that somewhat excludes the email responding crowd. But the key feature of the iPhone other than a repository of cool is its web browser. The screen is as big as is possible on a reasonably sized pocket device. Plus the browser basically works. I create websites that are quite demanding of the web browser and they basically work on the iPhone. No other portable web device that I have experienced can display the web usably. Most phone browsers mutilate most websites and most websites are not designed to work on phones. Technologies like WAP and such are mostly complete failures. But the iPhone truly brings the power of the internet to your hands in a portable way. But this power is limited to the informational part. The social and communications part is lacking. The RIM gets some of the communications part but not the informational and misses some of the social.

So where will this lead these two companies sales? I think that any head to head comparisons are meaningless for the most part at this time. If you are one of those people who is now effectively on call 24/7 because they are so reachable via their blackberry then the iPhone while probably good for your sanity just doesn’t have the email features that you need.  So at this time RIM need not worry about losing those legions of lawyers and MBAs with their crackberry monkeys. But where iPhone will do well is by getting those people who want more out of their phones and want the wonderful data features and the various gizmo features such as GPS, camera, watching movies, and so on. These are the people who bought the razr and thought that they were getting something newer and better. iPhone will cream off some of the top executives from RIM in that they will want something cooler than their worker drones. So with all this in mind it looks like RIM will continue to grow will little loss to iPhone but iPhone will be growing its market from people who either are looking for something new and better or just want to be the coolest kid on the block.

One twist is that the iPhone is both releasing a 3G version and expanding into Europe and Canada. This will make things like market share, units shipped and so on very hard to compare year to year.

Since there is no shortage of lawyers and MBAs being churned out by universities everywhere then RIM need not worry too much about market share. iPhone does need to worry about regular customers willingness to pay for rather expensive data plans.

With all this in mind RIM is safe and AAPL might be in for a wallstreet let down with the next iPhone.

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