Archive for October 22nd, 2008

Financial Naughty and Nice list.

Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008

I suspect that out of my usual stocks that some will recover along with the rest of the market but that others will be huge underperformers.

Apple will probably have a bad quarter this time around as will Google. But not terrible. Then when people have money they will flock to them.

Microsoft will also have a slightly dissapointing quarter but their customers won’t flock back but they will do sort of OK.

RIM will bomb this quarter and basically never recover drifting along with people saying that they are a buyout target. They will never be a buyout target as I think their brand will be a hasbeen in less than a decade and they will have nothing to offer but outdated infrastructure.

SUN will have a slightly bad quarter but this will be more do to their generalized rot as opposed to anything else. They too are not much of a buyout target for the same reasons that RIM won’t be a buyout target.

Canadian banks will eventually get some bonus or kick from the government so in the long term they will do well as usual, but for the short term I smell pain pain pain.

Back to Google. I believe that the ad world will discover that in the recovery quite a few of their customers tasted the Google koolaid and won’t ever be coming back. So all old media will be be wailing and gnashing their teeth come the recovery. A few old media outlets will reinvent themselves into either extremist media or actually focus on what people in their areas want and thrive. So most old media will suffer the death of a thousand cuts from bozos like this blog. Again, some will hope to be taken over but who the hell wants a 100 ton printing press going into the age of electronic ink?

MySQL and that bad smell called SUN

Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008

A year ago I had such great hope for SUN(JAVA). But it looks like they lost another key founder of the MySQL product they recently bought. So it looks like SUN is just incompatible with success.

I have generally found that with most successful software projects there are just a few people who really drive the product along. When they leave or lose control the product typically gets driven from marketing meetings and thus driven into the ground. Often this is usually not instataneous as the Marketing people initially do sell more of the given product but the product, being rudderless, drifts onto the rough shores of the land of Suck and breaks apart.

So I expect Sun to release some charts that show how great they are doing with MySQL over the next few quarters but I also expect to see my geeky compatriots start to drift to the next great database. I wonder what that is?

AAPL

Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008

Apple looks good. But is it time to buy? They kicked Blackberry’s butt but could that be because blackberry sales sucked? Are they reaching market saturation? One thing about Apple machines is that for the average person an older machine is enough. I will watch to see if average users around me upgrade. Also a bit of a driver of PC upgrades is their capacity to play games. New game often requires a new PC. Apples generally suck at playing games, so this is less of a driver. But the latest Apples are getting OK video cards. So maybe games will start coming out in ernest for the Apple line and thus drive some sales.

Canadian Banks & The Dutch Effect

Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008

I wonder now about Canadian banks & The Dutch effect. It is my belief that the Canadian banks are being allowed to hide their sub prime toxic waste cards close to their chests. Plus Alberta is turning out to be a huge sucking sound that the entire country has had to listen to. The rush of wealth to Alberta has trashed the remainder of the Canadian economy as witnessed by the huge drop in value of the Canadian dollar in rough lockstep with the drop in Oil prices. Now while this benefits exporters like myself, I don’t think it will last long. Exporters cannot build businesses worrying that the Candadian dollar will skyrocket next week. So while various indicators from the government show strength(relative to say… everyone else) in our economy those numbers due come from the government.

So I think that it might now be time to dump my Canadian banks.