Posts Tagged ‘AAPL’

Apple Microsoft Merger?

Monday, June 7th, 2010

A strange idea popped into my head. A merger of Apple and Microsoft. Very strange but not stupid. If you lay out the strengths and weaknesses of the two companies and then line them up you find yourself looking at one fine company.I got this idea after Steve Jobs finished launching another salvo at Adobe and then announced that Microsoft was going to be able to do what Adobe wasn’t allowed to do, which is to develop iPhone apps using Microsoft technologies and in Windows to boot. Keep in mind it is Adobe who has been a huge friend to Apple users and probably kept Apple alive through their dark times. But also Microsoft bought something like 150 million worth of Apple to prop them up in years past. Microsoft also never pulled the plug on the Apple version of Office which would have been a body blow for Apple. So buried inside Microsoft are some Apple Fanboys. If Microsoft kept those shares then Microsoft already owns a good chunk of Apple. The to put icing on the cake Apple is apparently having Steve Balmer on center stage during their biggest conference of the year. That would normally be a joke article on April 1st.

One of the cores reasons of this insane merger would be the threat that Google potentially poses to every area of strength that both companies have; which I will now lay out:

Apple strengths:

  • Snazzy operating system that is based upon BSD which should mean fewer man-hours required to keep it up.
  • The iPhone. The strongest consumer smartphone around.
  • The iPad. The medium will be the message here and the message will be sold through itunes and shown on iPads.
  • iTunes. Needs work but is a media selling machine that will no doubt be pumping media to more and more devices for more and more people.
  • Apple is the coolest kid on the block

Apple weaknesses:

  • Very weak enterprise everything. Technicallly they have the xserver but I don’t know anyone who uses one.
  • Steve Jobs is the plinth that this company rests on. I don’t see a replacement plinth around.
  • Safari is an also ran probably not worth the effort to bring to the front.

Microsoft Strengths:

  • Huge OS momentum with Windows.
  • Huge Enterprise strength in almost every category of enterpriseness going. Especially Microsoft Office.
  • Did I mention Microsoft Office?
  • Huge developer base.
  • Internet explorer dominates but is losing traction.
  • Figuring out how to run the company without Bill Gates hand on the rudder.
  • Bing is a distant second but might have a chance as part of a larger package.

Microsoft weaknesses:

  • Losing traction in every category. Operating system, Office Suite, Servers, Web Browser.
  • Their operating system is a herculean effort for every version.
  • Mobile Operating efforts are going nowhere.
  • Microsoft is very uncool.

Google strengths are two: Their search engine, and their ability to use their branding plus coding to hammer away at every single market that Apple and Microsoft presently dominate. An example would be Google’s Android not yet being an iPhone killer but Android is growing quickly. Google will need to replicate the iTunes success simultaneously to replicating the iPhone but there is nothing technologically difficult about that. It will be more of a marketing challenge combined with getting the usability right. It is the same with many of Google’s other probable targets.

So if you combine Apple and Microsoft you would give each of the two companies to cut their duds and focus on the winners you would have a company with a leading browser, huge developer base, huge installed base of users, a media powerhouse, a mobile powerhouse, a vast enterprise knowledge and enterprise customer base, a passable search engine and so on.With all that this single grouping would be able to keep leveraging their successes against their other successes to keep them individually unassailable as Microsoft has spent two decades perfecting.

I believe that the Windows style operating system is a huge dead end as well as a huge drain on microsoft. I think that Apple is losing interest in their desktop OS but have a great solution in that it is based upon BSD which is developed by zillions of outsiders at a much lower cost and would make an excellent basis for a microsoft server that would be able to hold its own against all things linux.

I would think an out and out merger would be presently forbidden by anti trust types and would also be a cultural horror show. But I suspect that over time you will see a hug, then some kissing, then they might find a room somewhere…

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Reply to an interesting comment.

Saturday, November 14th, 2009

Here is an interesting comment. I thought it deserved a reply.

It’s not about technology, moreover, you totally missed the point on why people own BlackBerrys. BlackBerry will dominate anybody who is serious about their business (except for industries that are socially relevant like media/entertainment/fashion), and iPhone will be a price cool thing for people who want to think they are cool. Android made by nerds for nerds, and is after the iPhone market which will crush them.

I agree and disagree Blackberrys are for business; absolutely.

Backberrys used to be for people who wanted to be cool. Business warriors now have them strapped to their belts (Khaki pants, blue shirt); which most people think is sort of sad.

Non business people sometimes got them but found them generally useless for their lifestyle. Any keyboard phone was good enough.

Now iPhones are for people who want to be cool. (My phone is cooler than your phone)

iPhones have an apps avalanche which is making the iPhone more and more attractive for more people in both a superficial way (iFart) and a useful way. (Metronome for musicians)

But where it all boils down is that I have found that a successful product will appeal to people’s base needs: ego, greed, sex, stupidity, boredom.The iPhone has these covered in spades.

Ego (I’m cool for having this)

Greed – iPhone, not so much. Blackberry might win here a bit.

sex – Great browser plus many apps cater to this.

stupidity – the great browser makes wikipedia usable and other apps that can make you look smart

and finally boredom. I see so many people plunk themselves down and pull out their phone (any phone) and try to entertain themselves with whatever their phones can do. The iPhone does this really well with movies, podcasts, music, and games all at the ready. Other phones can do this but the iPhone does it in spades.

The last point is that the Blackberry has hit its highpoint. Damn it emails well. But my sister (government funded) has the same blackberry from 4 years ago. She has no desire for the coolest and newest in that offers nothing more for her. So cameras GPSs and whatnot probably won’t send sales spiking.

The android is still the wild card. Since this is a blog from a tech point of view I will end on a technical note.

Years ago (circa 1999) I downloaded the Blackberry SDK. Wow the engineers made it easy for me to make an app. Didn’t do anything for me to help sell it. Not a damn thing that I could see. When I contacted some large telcos to try and sell some apps through them they seemed shocked that you could even sell apps.

Then along comes the iPhone SDK in 2008 after a few hiccups Apple slams 3rd party apps right into iTunes and bang the app avalanche began. I have begun the development of some apps and it is fun and easy. I can’t wait to see the results. Once development is complete I throw my app into the app store and begin attracting interest where my app will live or die on its own merits. I get 70%, Apple keeps 30%. Then when apps are sold they wire the money to me. That rocks. From a programming standpoint it uses a language called Objective-C. This language is not hard to learn but it isn’t a commonly used development language outside of Apple products but Objective-C is based upon C which is one of the hardest of hard-core languages available. Most commercial apps are developed using either C or C++. That would include things like most operating systems, video games, most Microsoft products, your browser, almost everything. Basically you can do anything that pops into your brain and is theoretically possible on the computer. This leads to Android. Android apps are primarily programmed in Java. While Java is a perfectly nice language it is, in my opinion, a huge steaming pile of crap. Many business apps, your company’s payroll system for example, are generally programmed in Java. But in my experience it is too easy to end up either avoiding cool functionality due to the limitations of Java or getting stuck in a programming quagmire where you spend months spinning your wheels in the mud. Lastly there are lots of bozos programming in Java. They learned it in school last week and now they are churning out code this week. Thus Android is a bit handicapped by this. With no empirical evidence at hand I would guess that the general quality of apps will end up being lower on Android due to this Java development path.

But now for something about android that from a programming perspective is completely backwards from what the general public might perceive. There are around 50 Android phones out or coming out soon. This might seem like a good thing but from the perspective of a programmer this is a nightmare. It means that if I make an Android app I would have to test it on 50 platforms. Each platform could be quite different. This sucks. This really sucks. Programming for the iPhone can be hard enough and the various iPhones and iPod touches are almost identical to each other. Same basic screen. Similar processors and the core capabilities are nearly identical.

All these Android phones will make programmer’s brains explode but it does have one advantage. The iPhone is generally getting better and better with each release. But the Androids will be pumped out by many companies. If any one of them hits a home run they stand a chance of leaving the iPhone behind. But I suspect the opposite will remain true unless Apple drops the ball with the iPhone. I suspect that the niche that the Androids will occupy will be iPhone clones. They will appeal to people who can’t afford the absurdly expensive iPhones. This is a perfectly profitable place to sit whereas mounting a challenge to the iPhone will probably be financially ruinous even if the company in question wins.

So in summary. From a technical point I love the iPhone. As a technical consumer I love the iPhone. I also want the latest and greatest iPhone.

From a technical point the Android annoys me. As a technical consumer I don’t have any interest in the Android.

From a technical point the Blackberry confuses me. As a technical consumer the blackberry is useless to me.

From observing people; nearly everyone I know wants an iPhone and those with them either have the latest or wish they did. In fact I meet many people who pull out their iPhones and we spend 20 minutes comparing apps. The few who have blackberries either are happy or wish they had an iPhone but have zero desire for the latest and greatest blackberry.

So will RIMM die? No. Will the iPhone crush them like a bug? No; but who crushed the pager?

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Windows 7 Yeah whatever

Sunday, September 6th, 2009

Microsoft has come out with there shiny new Windows 7. I have heard nothing but praise for it. That is good but not a huge surprise after the disaster that was Vista. As far as I can see Windows 7 is Vista done properly. No doubt sales will be OK as many hold outs who avoided Vista might very well buy Windows 7. But among my technology buddies very few have jumped to the new version. Those who still use windows are nearly all sticking with XP not out of a fear of Windows 7 but more that they just can’t be bothered making the switch. Also it isn’t cheap and since it holds no perceived value they would rather not waste their money.

So what does this mean for Microsoft. Basically, in my opinion, they have missed the boat again. They aren’t listening to their audience and are putting out more product that serves Microsoft’s needs more than those of the public. There is nothing inspiring me to go back to Windows. Installing Windows 7 should be like opening a present on Christmas day; not a chore that very well could turn into a battle. When I turned on my Mac for the first time I did a little dance. I was lost and it was unfamiliar territory but with the exception of a few bumps it was a fun ride. So Windows 7 is no fun. People need more fun in their lives, not less. So my guess is that Windows 7 sales will pick up a few of the hold outs that are stuck with XP but won’t stop the bleed to Linux and Mac.

But as we all know there is a bit of a cash flow problem out there so MS sales would normally be down around now. Thus Windows 7 will at best probably fill in a hole instead of being a revenue home run.

If you want to see the long term prognoses for Microsoft just find out what your kids want to bring to university this year. A mac or a PC? I suspect that many will go with PCs but wish they had macs. A fair number will go with Netbooks as those are cheap as dirt; yet these kids too will wish for a mac.

Does this bode well for mac? Not really as much as you would think. Most people wish for a German car yet end up buying Japanese. So yes apple will benefit a bit but it is Microsoft who will be the big loser here.

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Microsoft and the death by a thousand MBAs

Monday, May 25th, 2009

I heard a rumor that Microsoft just did a 4 billion dollar bond issue. If true this is odd for a company with around 25 billion in cash sitting in a big vault with Microsoft surfing the waves of gold coins. This is odd for two reasons. One is that right now is about the worst time in many many decades to be issuing bonds (unless it turns out people are looking for reliable bonds and Microsoft is taking advantage of that) and what profitable thing could Microsoft be planning that is worth having that kind of debt? The next part that make it odd is that Microsoft must have watched companies die after they cleared out their war-chests and raced off and bought something that turned out to be stupid. Time-Warner buying AOL would be a great example.

So unless Microsoft is getting into some completely unrelated business like mining they are probably buying something tech and something that will cost the better part of 29 Billion dollars. So you can cross out most American companies as the courts would jump all over Microsoft if they bought anything that left Microsoft a monopoly. The leading candidate rumor is SAP. I like this rumor so I will explore it as the probable future.

I hate SAP. Not a little bit but a huge amount. If I were to go into detail I could make a sailor blush so let’s just say I hate this hard sell, high priced, company that smells like the breath of the slimiest MBA that you have ever met and had do the double gun fingers to you. This is somewhat different than the origin of Microsoft. Microsoft was founded by a bunch of geeks who struck gold. This attracted many more geeks who continued to mine gold at a furious pace. Some business types snuck in and no doubt helped to keep the books straight. Also like any collection of humanity Microsoft was probably slightly populated by charismatic ladder climbers but seeing that many of the original founding technical staff had senior positions and money coming out their ears these ladder climbing backstabbers probably didn’t get the same traction that they might in, say a government department.

But I suspect that the senior management at Microsoft is starting to follow Bill Gates to the exit and are being replaced by those charismatic ladder climbers who don’t have money coming out of their ears. But they want money to come out of their ears and thus are looking for the big score that selling another few million copies of office just won’t provide. A merger with something big might just do the trick. SAP would seem to be a good fit. They are big and provide what I call a big bang solution. A big bang solution is where you throw out your entire set of old software and you bring in a whole new software universe that you must live with no matter what. SAP provides an end to end solution that seems to be very hard to escape from. Microsoft provides an operating and server environment that is also very hard to escape from. Combined and their customers may very well find themselves caught in the software equivalent of a black hole.

But I don’t think that this business strategy, (on paper probably the best merger in many years) can survive the human equation. SAP in theory would be the junior partner but the technically minded staff would almost certainly be overwhelmed by a tidal-wave of senior SAP personnel who come from a sales background. From a Machiavellian point of view this would be like shooting fish in a barrel. But while this might be fun for SAP I suspect that the disruption to Microsoft would be massive. Also many of its resources would be turned to making Microsoft a SAP selling monster resulting in their neglecting their bread and butter of Office and Operating systems. So long term SAP would go all Microsoft and Microsoft would go all dead. In the short term SAP sales would go up and Microsoft sales would be sustained. But long term Microsoft sales would fade and SAP sales would be dragged down with them. Then if SAP were to abandon Microsoft as a platform then the death to Microsoft would be accelerated and who knows what would happen to SAP.

In the short term, even without SAP, I think Microsoft is facing a huge problem. Windows version 7 is about to come out. Not one of my geek friends has come to be with wonder in his eyes with tales of some cool feature. Also not one of my geek friends has tried out Windows 7. In years past my friends would install the latest operating system as fast as they could get their hands on them. I am talking about pre beta highly unstable operating systems that would explode over and over. But after Vista turned out to be such a huge honkin’ dud most of my friends either went with Apple or are sticking with and are happy with Windows XP. So this same bunch are not even bothering to look at Windows 7. None of us have seen any compelling reason to make the switch. Not a single one. It is people like myself who advise many companies what they should do. Unlike Vista I won’t advise avoiding Windows 7 like the plague but I won’t be pushing it or using it myself. This says to me that Microsoft won’t get a crazy surge in sales. They will pick up some of the people who refused Vista but their sales will certainly be made up mostly by new computer sales and the fact that Microsoft comes with the computer by default. I still don’t commonly advise Linux as a desktop but Linux is getting closer to crossing that threshold where I would make that suggestion. What one must take into consideration is that I suspect that the bell curve of the Linux switch is a very sudden bulge. Thus when Linux gets just a little better it might not trickle onto the desktops of the world but it will flood.There are organizations such as the national police force in France who have made the jump and I suspect that many people will analyse situations like that to death and eventually be able to make the case for Linux. So some day the Economist Magazine will have a cover with a penguin (Linux logo) saying that any sensible company uses Linux. That will be the death of Microsoft and SAP will take a body blow if they have become part of Microsoft.

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Microsoft’s sinking ship

Saturday, January 24th, 2009

Before reading this blurb, please understand that I am not a Linux zealot. There are many people out there who cross their index fingers at the sight of Microsoft products. I have used many of their products over the years and have generally found Linux annoying as a desktop and cannot foresee myself ever using it. Recently I have made the switch to Apple and continue to program for Linux servers and Windows desktops. My theory is that I will use the best product for the job at hand. So with this in mind…

I had a problem and that problem is that around a year ago my father bought an underpowered Acer machine with Vista on it. Even with the crappy Acer software removed and the trial of Norton AV removed the computer was a total dog. New, it booted in around 3 minutes and opening things like a browser or a word processor took so long you almost forgot what you were planning on doing when it finally got around to opening. So I was going to dumb it down to Windows XP when I thought I would try the latest Ubuntu….

I set up my father’s desktop with Ubuntu and it rocks. He can boot up and be in his email or on the web it a tad over a minute. I put the icons for Skype, Firefox, Word from openoffice and Email on his desktop so he probably won’t notice anything is odd at all. What is important about all that is that his computer now functions far better than it did with Vista and with no compromises as far as he is concerned. He now has no Microsoft software running on his computer.

I would say the worst risk that he runs with Linux is that he will buy a new printer that won’t have the linux drivers. Most of the mainstream printers will be fine though.

The security on the system is basically off the scale. As the person who gets called with every problem I don’t anticipate getting any calls.

Microsoft is in big trouble. Even if their new Windows 7 is reliable and not too demanding they will still be losing to free Linuxes. The only way for Microsoft to pull ahead will be to have some feature that has the status of Killer. Basically they need monkeys to fly out of their butts.

For the average user Linux would be a perfect set up. But there are two big holes. Games won’t work and once you step outside of the word processing, surfing, and emailing basics you are basically screwed. No software you buy at staples will work and any extra device you buy such as a web cam will not probably be installable by your average user.

So I would say that right now Linux is ideal for servers and old people. Microsoft’s other problem is that younger people want Apple products. So the main group of people who will continue to use Microsoft products will be the corporate world. That might be big but Microsoft will lose the hearts and minds of people at home and those same people will be quick to drag Linux and Apple into the workplace as fast as they can.

So as I have mentioned before, my long term forecast for Microsoft is a long slow slide into obscurity. This will take forever and a day due to their lack of debt and a captive market that will be slow to change; but like companies of the Sun and Novell types once the necrosis sets in the company has little chance to ever thrive again.

What stock advice comes from this? Well Linux is not really a company. A few companies like RedHat nibble at the corners of Linux for a few crumbs of profit but since the core product is free I don’t see this as a huge success business model. At best other companies that provide services that leverage linux will do a tiny bit better as their server costs will continue to drop. Microsoft’s fall from grace will be so slow as to be useless to bet against unless you are into 10 year short sided bets. Microsoft will occasionally announce that a Monkey has flown out of their butt but I suspect that these monkeys will turn out to be the stuff that usually comes out of people’s butts. So except for day traders I would say to just put Microsoft thoughts aside unless somehow they get their fire back. To test to see if that fire is real; look at your desktop and see if that firey product is rocking your world. If not then ignore the hype.

Lastly there is a path for Microsoft to be successful. It is a contradictory path. First is that the new Operating system must be stripped way down. Get rid of all the bits that are there to sell customers all the other products that Microsoft makes. Toss .net, sharepoint, database connectors, Active Directory stuff and everything. Make the operating system completely bare. I want an operating system that takes up less than 100M of drive space and uses a less than 50M when freshly booted. But make the OS very modular. If you want sharepoint interaction then you can add it. But when you add something to the OS don’t integrate it, keep it very separate. No more registry, windows, or system directories all piled up with crap. Right now most operating systems have a security model that will ask when the user tries to do something fundamental. Well make it so that these fundamental modifications are not required by newly installing software. Hard drives are basically free so if every application needs to have its own .dll files that is fine. Make the computer boot in like 5 seconds.

But next, and this is the near opposite of what I just wrote, make your OS do something with all those computers in the office. I could go into huge and complicated details about a solution, but Microsoft has the opportunity to do something really cool that they won’t be able to do in just a few years. Something that would cement their place in the computer world and blow Linux back a decade in their progress to win desktops.

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AAPL

Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008

Apple looks good. But is it time to buy? They kicked Blackberry’s butt but could that be because blackberry sales sucked? Are they reaching market saturation? One thing about Apple machines is that for the average person an older machine is enough. I will watch to see if average users around me upgrade. Also a bit of a driver of PC upgrades is their capacity to play games. New game often requires a new PC. Apples generally suck at playing games, so this is less of a driver. But the latest Apples are getting OK video cards. So maybe games will start coming out in ernest for the Apple line and thus drive some sales.

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Google Android vs Blackberry vs iPhone

Monday, October 6th, 2008

In summary Google will win and Blackberry will lose. A quick summary of the three products from a simplified technical point of view.

iPhone is cool and plays music. It surfs the web very well unlike almost any other web capable phone. It will show you the web in miniature as well as your desktop will show you. Except for pages using flash technology. The biggest inherent obstacle for business users is the lack of a keyboard. This means the iPhone user is mostly limited to consuming information. Cool is a major feature here. Everything about this phone is quite cool. It has quite a few applications being developed but Apple seems to want to battle with developers. Microsoft lost a whole generation of developers by doing this “our way or the highway” thing.

The blackberry line is as everyone knows is very good at email. But that is about it. Its web capability is squirlly and nobody that I have ever met uses any of the other applications. Technically it is possible for developers to make things for the blackberry but I don’t see much of this. In my opinion all RIM products are ugly and aimed at 50 year olds who think they are cool but truely truely aren’t. RIM does not seem to have much of an idea that phones are jewelry for some people.

The android is pretty ugly but cooler than anything RIM makes. It has the RIM keyboard and the iPhone web capability. But Google is doing a good job of wooing developers to make apps for the android. This will probably allow the android to be all things to all people. Quite simply it will have all the best features in both the iPhone and the various RIM products. Some coolness, a keyboard for email and stuff, and great web browsing.

The various reviews of the new Android phone compare it mostly to the iPhone and a few compare it to the Blackberry. Most of these reviews either call it a tie or they give the Android a close second place. A very few call it a winner. None of this is relevant until you consider that this is google’s first phone. What will their second phone be like?

The people who I see running around with blackberries are government people, finance people, and real-estate people. The last two groups are taking a huge hit both in jobs and budgets. Thus I foresee a general drop in all smart phone use but mostly blackberries. This will hurt the android somewhat in that it won’t be the raving success that might have come its way with a boom economy but overall this might benefit Google. From a technical point of view it looks like the Android might be cheaper to run than blackberries and iPhones and due to what google is providing to geeks it will soon have applications that will cover any software feature found on the other phones. So if you like some software feature on your favorite phone it will be matched and bettered by the android.

So I see a market that will be looking to cut back hurting blackberry and iPhone but not Android as they have doubtfully built up much dependancy on their tiny market share where as RIM basically has a single product and will be seriously hurt by any drop in revenues. iPhone will be less affected by this but it will give their many competitors such as samsung to catch up with cheaper units. This will hurt things like RIM’s R&D and general moral.

Then I see some companies adopting some Androids to cut cost. This won’t amount to much but it will get people exploring non RIM options. Then when the market rebounds people will not all return to the RIM family. Many will go to Android for both capabilities and cost.

So the timing of this bust will only put nails in RIMs coffin and open a door to Google. I don’t see this as being a huge revenue generator for Google but I do see this as being a massive revenue eraser for RIM.

So in summary Google will do OK; RIM will die a slow death; and Apple will just continue along.

PS My prediction is the RIM will fade in spurts. Basically look at the history of companies like Novell and Sun. They just sort of faded from relevance. Once in a while they would make headlines with a sizable layoff but due to a lack of any crushing debt they just sort of faded from the scene. One customer base that probably won’t switch and will keep RIM plodding along will be governments. Due to the lack of real impact by the economy they won’t cut way back and since they generally are very old school people who are very uncool they will keep on and on with their blackberries. That should fit in well with their various Novell and Sun systems.

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Sunday, September 7th, 2008

Here is a great reason for dumping sun. In response to a rumor that MySQL co-founder Micheal “Monty” Widenius may quit Sun Microsystems one of the SUN people said, “Second, Monty’s resignation has been a possible outcome already since years before the Sun acquisition. Perhaps his resignation at some point is inevitable, given that the type of skills and qualities needed to make MySQL great are different from those needed for working productively in a larger organisation (and I am referring to the size of the MySQL team, not Sun).”

This quote has two wonderfully revealing parts. First; wouldn’t everyone who works have resignation as a possible outcome? Short of slaves all workers might resign at some point. The real question is when? So right here we have a large company trying to spin this. Why. Either he leaves or he doesn’t. If he doesn’t you have the guy say that he isn’t or he does and you deal with it. What would spinning this do for a company when if he just pops out and resigns anyway. The only thing that I would learn from this if his resignation was important to me would be that Sun can not be trusted to be forthcoming with the truth. If he isn’t resigning then the PR flacs should parade him out and have him tell it.

The second sentance kills all hope I have for sun in the future. “the type of skills and qualities needed to make MySQL great are different from those needed for working productively” Great products were the only thing that could bring sun back. But this flac seems to think that working productively is better than making MySQL great. What is this productive work that somehow results in not great MySQL? Could it be endless reams of meaningless reports and meaningless meetings?

I am just guessing this but looking at the history of MySQL (created one of the greatest databases ever with little budget) and the history of SUN (sold sort of big iron to big stupid companys until linux kicked their asses and the companies became less stupid) that there might have been an uncomfortable situation every time this guy came into a room. The courtiers would worry each time what was going to come out of his mouth. Might he tell the truth again and point to another naked emperor? Then the courtiers probably just shut him out. Just a guess.

So what have I learned from three crap investments(VMW, MSFT, JAVA) in tech?

Nimble is good. Big and old is bad.

Who is important to the company? Has their position changed? If so then just stay away. Watch for code words/phrases such as ‘allowing him to focus’, ‘spend more time with his family’, ‘the new ceo is better suited to the demands of running a public company’ et tu brute?

If you see the founders of a nimble company being pushed around by someone who has an MBA and has read the prince a few too many times then this is bad.

Bill Gates and Microsoft would be a great example. This company grew and grew under his control but once the charity work came the company faltered.

Apple would be another example with a well known story of founders and such.

VMWare looks like it is in the same boat.

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Switching from PC to Apple; a programmer’s perspective

Tuesday, June 17th, 2008

Over the past week I have finished making the switch from PC to Apple. I think that I have an interesting perspective because over the last 20 years I have nearly elusively used microsoft for my desktop operating system and for many of those years I used Microsoft as my server system.

For the most part the only other operating system that I have extensively used would be the Linux operating system but not as my desktop. My programming has usually been a combination of windows application programming mixed with server side programming. Microsoft served me well providing me with many tools that were the best available and during a period from about 1997 – 2003 were nearly all that I used for the server and desktop. Off and on from 96-01 I also used the Java programming language. But then I discovered the .net environment and from that moment on I was hooked. Many of the hard won coding victories that I had added to my library were mostly to be found in the world of .net with more being added all the time. My programming went quickly and smoothly in Microsoft’s .net programming environment. But then as time went by I started to find that Microsoft was not trying to help me program but was telling me how to program. Also I found myself using fewer and fewer microsoft tools and more and more opensource. Now I am not an opensource evangelist. The tools were just better. MySQL replaced Microsoft’s SQL server. Next PHP replaced .net along with eclipse replacing visual studio. Then linux replaced Microsoft’s server and now all I was basically left with was XP as my desktop.

Next I noticed geeks all around me using Macs. I noticed that the various hackers were also using Macs. Then I found out that the Mac OS is based upon an OS called BSD. BSD is for hard core hackers. But here was BSD hidden underneath the glossy Mac OS. So then I discover that the Mac OS is really a hard core server waiting for me to play with it. So I check to see if all my favorite apps are available for the mac which they were and then I made my move. I get the mac all up and running dual monitors and all. No problems. It sees my usb devices the apps all install and within hours I am up and running. Then for the next few days productivity drops while I get used to the new keys and where everything is hidden. The BSD lurking underneath is completely happy with my Linux / Solaris commands and I even remember my vi commands.

I would say that productivity is way up with the exception of some key slips where I use the windows key combos. The Mac aluminum keyboard is very nice. I am used to an ergonomic keyboard so my only wish is that they made an aluminum ergonomic keyboard. But all those little things are just better. Printing is better. Startup is quicker. The apps start is less time. Things are snappier. The upgrades are better. And the basic apps like iPhoto are kick ass simple. I have been wrestling with digital photos since the late 90s and nothing touches the ease of iPhoto.

I do have a few complaints about the Mac. Not everything is easier. Dragging applications to the applications folder to install them is just not intuitive. I get it but will a 60 year old first time user of computers get that? Memory. I have my computer loaded with 4 Gigs of RAM and I would not be able to function with less. Ram is cheap if you buy it separately from Apple but would most people be able to install it?  Applications. I am able to get by with the few missing apps that I need by using Darwine and VMWare Fusion but these are not for basic users. A better way to run windows apps is needed. I am fine but I would hate to have to show a basic user how to do all that.

So in summary. I am still producing applications for windows using VMWare fusion and Visual studio but now I port my C++ applications over to mac. My web application programming has improved as I am now working in an environment that more closely resembles the servers that the web applications will end up on.

So joyfully I have sidestepped the disaster known as Vista. But where will this lead. Some people are predicting that Apple will end up with huge percentages of the PC market share. Others predict that Microsoft will pump out a new OS and regain and losses they have to Apple. I suspect that the truth is that Apple will gain some good market share (around 15 to an absolute max of 20%) and then stop. They will stop both because Apple’s are just so damn expensive and also because hardware will get better so new machines will be able to drag the deadweight that is vista around a bit better. Linux is not a player in the desktop world and probably should stick to servers. The primary breakthrough that I see in the Apple market share will be IT people who make the swtich and then drag a small share of their company along. But the accountants will generally fight Apple corporate penetration as they would eat money.

So the real mac commercial should not show the dope smoking artist vs the bloated sack of crap but two businessmen. One with a pc and one with a mac. The Mac guy should then do things that are useful to the business world and do them faster. The Mac guy can then get into his Porsche and the PC guy can get into his Ford.

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iPhone vs RIM

Tuesday, June 10th, 2008

I think this comes down to what people use their device for. For typing text primarily for emails the various blackberry RIM devices win hands down.  Most people that I know who have a RIM device only use it for the two features of email and as a very oddly shaped phone; nothing else. I have only met one person who used the web feature which I suspect is the only other feature that a few people use on their blackberrys.

But the iPhone seems to be missing the keyboard which is simply the best way to enter text so that somewhat excludes the email responding crowd. But the key feature of the iPhone other than a repository of cool is its web browser. The screen is as big as is possible on a reasonably sized pocket device. Plus the browser basically works. I create websites that are quite demanding of the web browser and they basically work on the iPhone. No other portable web device that I have experienced can display the web usably. Most phone browsers mutilate most websites and most websites are not designed to work on phones. Technologies like WAP and such are mostly complete failures. But the iPhone truly brings the power of the internet to your hands in a portable way. But this power is limited to the informational part. The social and communications part is lacking. The RIM gets some of the communications part but not the informational and misses some of the social.

So where will this lead these two companies sales? I think that any head to head comparisons are meaningless for the most part at this time. If you are one of those people who is now effectively on call 24/7 because they are so reachable via their blackberry then the iPhone while probably good for your sanity just doesn’t have the email features that you need.  So at this time RIM need not worry about losing those legions of lawyers and MBAs with their crackberry monkeys. But where iPhone will do well is by getting those people who want more out of their phones and want the wonderful data features and the various gizmo features such as GPS, camera, watching movies, and so on. These are the people who bought the razr and thought that they were getting something newer and better. iPhone will cream off some of the top executives from RIM in that they will want something cooler than their worker drones. So with all this in mind it looks like RIM will continue to grow will little loss to iPhone but iPhone will be growing its market from people who either are looking for something new and better or just want to be the coolest kid on the block.

One twist is that the iPhone is both releasing a 3G version and expanding into Europe and Canada. This will make things like market share, units shipped and so on very hard to compare year to year.

Since there is no shortage of lawyers and MBAs being churned out by universities everywhere then RIM need not worry too much about market share. iPhone does need to worry about regular customers willingness to pay for rather expensive data plans.

With all this in mind RIM is safe and AAPL might be in for a wallstreet let down with the next iPhone.

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