Posts Tagged ‘Android’

RIM the new Novell

Thursday, May 12th, 2011

It is my belief that RIM(RIMM) is the new Novell and that to see the future of RIM just look at the history of Novell.

In the 80′s and early 90′s Novell was the dude. If you had a corporation and you had a bunch of computers you had to have Novell, full stop. Then in the mid 90′s Microsoft and then later on Linux started pushing hard against Novell. But in big corporations Novell held on tight. Come turn of the century it was just getting stupid to have any Novell in you company. But Novell was rooted deep. Often the first network in the company was Novell and the people who started with that network were now running large tech division within the company and held 10′s of thousands of dollars worth of certifications. They could demand top dollar and were the big swinging dicks within the various companies they worked for. But then little upstart squirts could install a Microsoft network that could match Novell and soon kick its ass. Novell market share stopped growing but it still held on. But then networking got really easy and all real growth was with Microsoft and Linux. I personally got to watch this at one company when the head of IT (a complete waste product) was trying to get Novell to install on a new kick ass server from Dell. When he called Dell tech support they basically said,  “Novell who the hell uses Novell? No that crap won’t work with any of our newer servers.” I had a smile from ear to ear.

Here we are in 2011 and some governments and crap corporations (like utilities) are still using Novell. But any company that has two braincells to rub together has either abandoned it or never had it in the first place. But Novell isn’t dead. They never had much debt so they don’t so much die as fade away. But what really kills them is that they are growth companies. They build up costs and more costs and then when the growth stops it is hard to cut fat with out cutting muscle. Also it becomes hard to attract talent to a boring shrinking company.The funny thing is that Novell is not dead. They recently got eaten by some company but they have revenues and seem to make money. What they are in the world of tech is irrelevant. While still a huge company they were no longer a player. A carbuncle on the asses of large old corporations.

Who do you think has the big lineups at the job fair: Google with Android, Apple, or RIM? I suspect that at the RIM desk there is a huddle of MBAs comparing the three apps that they have found.

Playbook… Meah

QNX… Meah

So 50 year old plus MBAs and Lawyers won’t give up their Crackberries and might even buy themselves a playbook but anyone with a soul will toss it into the closest sewer grate and forget them like the tech equivalent to tasseled loafers that they are.

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Apple Microsoft Merger?

Monday, June 7th, 2010

A strange idea popped into my head. A merger of Apple and Microsoft. Very strange but not stupid. If you lay out the strengths and weaknesses of the two companies and then line them up you find yourself looking at one fine company.I got this idea after Steve Jobs finished launching another salvo at Adobe and then announced that Microsoft was going to be able to do what Adobe wasn’t allowed to do, which is to develop iPhone apps using Microsoft technologies and in Windows to boot. Keep in mind it is Adobe who has been a huge friend to Apple users and probably kept Apple alive through their dark times. But also Microsoft bought something like 150 million worth of Apple to prop them up in years past. Microsoft also never pulled the plug on the Apple version of Office which would have been a body blow for Apple. So buried inside Microsoft are some Apple Fanboys. If Microsoft kept those shares then Microsoft already owns a good chunk of Apple. The to put icing on the cake Apple is apparently having Steve Balmer on center stage during their biggest conference of the year. That would normally be a joke article on April 1st.

One of the cores reasons of this insane merger would be the threat that Google potentially poses to every area of strength that both companies have; which I will now lay out:

Apple strengths:

  • Snazzy operating system that is based upon BSD which should mean fewer man-hours required to keep it up.
  • The iPhone. The strongest consumer smartphone around.
  • The iPad. The medium will be the message here and the message will be sold through itunes and shown on iPads.
  • iTunes. Needs work but is a media selling machine that will no doubt be pumping media to more and more devices for more and more people.
  • Apple is the coolest kid on the block

Apple weaknesses:

  • Very weak enterprise everything. Technicallly they have the xserver but I don’t know anyone who uses one.
  • Steve Jobs is the plinth that this company rests on. I don’t see a replacement plinth around.
  • Safari is an also ran probably not worth the effort to bring to the front.

Microsoft Strengths:

  • Huge OS momentum with Windows.
  • Huge Enterprise strength in almost every category of enterpriseness going. Especially Microsoft Office.
  • Did I mention Microsoft Office?
  • Huge developer base.
  • Internet explorer dominates but is losing traction.
  • Figuring out how to run the company without Bill Gates hand on the rudder.
  • Bing is a distant second but might have a chance as part of a larger package.

Microsoft weaknesses:

  • Losing traction in every category. Operating system, Office Suite, Servers, Web Browser.
  • Their operating system is a herculean effort for every version.
  • Mobile Operating efforts are going nowhere.
  • Microsoft is very uncool.

Google strengths are two: Their search engine, and their ability to use their branding plus coding to hammer away at every single market that Apple and Microsoft presently dominate. An example would be Google’s Android not yet being an iPhone killer but Android is growing quickly. Google will need to replicate the iTunes success simultaneously to replicating the iPhone but there is nothing technologically difficult about that. It will be more of a marketing challenge combined with getting the usability right. It is the same with many of Google’s other probable targets.

So if you combine Apple and Microsoft you would give each of the two companies to cut their duds and focus on the winners you would have a company with a leading browser, huge developer base, huge installed base of users, a media powerhouse, a mobile powerhouse, a vast enterprise knowledge and enterprise customer base, a passable search engine and so on.With all that this single grouping would be able to keep leveraging their successes against their other successes to keep them individually unassailable as Microsoft has spent two decades perfecting.

I believe that the Windows style operating system is a huge dead end as well as a huge drain on microsoft. I think that Apple is losing interest in their desktop OS but have a great solution in that it is based upon BSD which is developed by zillions of outsiders at a much lower cost and would make an excellent basis for a microsoft server that would be able to hold its own against all things linux.

I would think an out and out merger would be presently forbidden by anti trust types and would also be a cultural horror show. But I suspect that over time you will see a hug, then some kissing, then they might find a room somewhere…

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Google Android vs Blackberry vs iPhone

Monday, October 6th, 2008

In summary Google will win and Blackberry will lose. A quick summary of the three products from a simplified technical point of view.

iPhone is cool and plays music. It surfs the web very well unlike almost any other web capable phone. It will show you the web in miniature as well as your desktop will show you. Except for pages using flash technology. The biggest inherent obstacle for business users is the lack of a keyboard. This means the iPhone user is mostly limited to consuming information. Cool is a major feature here. Everything about this phone is quite cool. It has quite a few applications being developed but Apple seems to want to battle with developers. Microsoft lost a whole generation of developers by doing this “our way or the highway” thing.

The blackberry line is as everyone knows is very good at email. But that is about it. Its web capability is squirlly and nobody that I have ever met uses any of the other applications. Technically it is possible for developers to make things for the blackberry but I don’t see much of this. In my opinion all RIM products are ugly and aimed at 50 year olds who think they are cool but truely truely aren’t. RIM does not seem to have much of an idea that phones are jewelry for some people.

The android is pretty ugly but cooler than anything RIM makes. It has the RIM keyboard and the iPhone web capability. But Google is doing a good job of wooing developers to make apps for the android. This will probably allow the android to be all things to all people. Quite simply it will have all the best features in both the iPhone and the various RIM products. Some coolness, a keyboard for email and stuff, and great web browsing.

The various reviews of the new Android phone compare it mostly to the iPhone and a few compare it to the Blackberry. Most of these reviews either call it a tie or they give the Android a close second place. A very few call it a winner. None of this is relevant until you consider that this is google’s first phone. What will their second phone be like?

The people who I see running around with blackberries are government people, finance people, and real-estate people. The last two groups are taking a huge hit both in jobs and budgets. Thus I foresee a general drop in all smart phone use but mostly blackberries. This will hurt the android somewhat in that it won’t be the raving success that might have come its way with a boom economy but overall this might benefit Google. From a technical point of view it looks like the Android might be cheaper to run than blackberries and iPhones and due to what google is providing to geeks it will soon have applications that will cover any software feature found on the other phones. So if you like some software feature on your favorite phone it will be matched and bettered by the android.

So I see a market that will be looking to cut back hurting blackberry and iPhone but not Android as they have doubtfully built up much dependancy on their tiny market share where as RIM basically has a single product and will be seriously hurt by any drop in revenues. iPhone will be less affected by this but it will give their many competitors such as samsung to catch up with cheaper units. This will hurt things like RIM’s R&D and general moral.

Then I see some companies adopting some Androids to cut cost. This won’t amount to much but it will get people exploring non RIM options. Then when the market rebounds people will not all return to the RIM family. Many will go to Android for both capabilities and cost.

So the timing of this bust will only put nails in RIMs coffin and open a door to Google. I don’t see this as being a huge revenue generator for Google but I do see this as being a massive revenue eraser for RIM.

So in summary Google will do OK; RIM will die a slow death; and Apple will just continue along.

PS My prediction is the RIM will fade in spurts. Basically look at the history of companies like Novell and Sun. They just sort of faded from relevance. Once in a while they would make headlines with a sizable layoff but due to a lack of any crushing debt they just sort of faded from the scene. One customer base that probably won’t switch and will keep RIM plodding along will be governments. Due to the lack of real impact by the economy they won’t cut way back and since they generally are very old school people who are very uncool they will keep on and on with their blackberries. That should fit in well with their various Novell and Sun systems.

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